The first half of the course examines the lessons we can take from deep history for existential risk.
We will review the closest past analogues: societal collapses, mass extinction events, and the loss of ancestral relatives in the Homo Genus, such as Homo Neanderthalensis. There have been five mass extinction events through the Earth’s Phanerozoic history: the Ordovician–Silurian, the Late Devonian, the Permian-Triassic, the Triassic-Jurassic, and the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction events. Collapse incorporates the most (in)famous case studies such as the Western Roman Empire and the Maya Terminal Classical Period, as well as the more obscure such as fall of the Puebloan culture of Chaco Canyon.
The second half focuses on the future, and unprecedented risks. This includes emerging well-established risks such as oanthropogenic climate change and nuclear warfare, as well as more speculative technological risks like bioengineered pandemics.
Throughout the seminar we will cultivate a critical understanding of the current tools used for forecasting future global catastrophes and understanding risk.
Learning outcomes
- A critical understanding of different approaches to understanding human extinction and societal collapse;
- An appreciation of how history can (and can’t) inform our understanding of future catastrophes;
- A basic comprehension of the different tools used to forecast future global catastrophes, including their benefits and limitations;
- A developed capacity for understanding how political structures and institutions contribute to catastrophe and their prevention.