David Spiegelhalter on risk: new lecture video
Imagine you have two bowls of beans in front of you. One bowl contains 10 beans, of which one bean is red. The other bowl contains 100 beans, of which eight are red. Which bowl would most people choose if asked to make a 'lucky dip' for a red bean? The answer might surprise you!
In this new Madingley Lecture video, filmed at Madingley Hall on 3 May 2011, Professor David Spiegelhalter explains how people's perceptions of risk and uncertainty are influenced by the words, numbers and pictures used to communicate them. Using a range of topical examples, from statins to swine flu, he explores different ways of communicating risk, uncertainty, and uncertainty about uncertainty...
Professor Spiegelhalter is Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge.