Aims
This course aims to:
• the big geopolitical challenges facing the world today
• the shape and working of the international system
• the rise of challengers to the US dominance on which it has depended
• the big global problems with which it is struggling and how it is likely to evolve in response to these pressures
Content
The world has long been an arena where strong states preyed upon weak ones and war was the habitual way of settling disputes. But, as economic interdependence has grown and war has become more destructive, there have been intensifying efforts to find a less Darwinian, more rules based, way of managing world affairs. These efforts culminated after the end of the Cold War with a global system dominated by the United States and, at least notionally, acting on the basis of multinational agreements, international law and the hope that universal democracy would bring universal peace. That system is now breaking down. Democracy and human rights are on the defensive. Rival powers - notably Russia and China - have begun to challenge US hegemony. Great Power war may be coming back eg in Ukraine or Taiwan. And cooperation to tackle overarching global threats such as nuclear proliferation and climate change is visibly under stress. This course looks at these developments and asks where we may be going.
Presentation of the course
The course will involve illustrated lectures and group discussion.
Course sessions
1. The evolution of the current world order
We look at how the international system has evolved from dog-eat-dog Machiavellianism towards a more multilateral, cooperative, rules-based approach, underpinned by US power, and the challenges that are now emerging.
2. Sharing the cage with an angry Bear; Russia
Russia’s discomfort with the US dominated world order has now exploded into the Ukraine war. Why? And where are we going?
3. The Eastern Dragon revived; China
Undoubtedly the key challenge to US dominance over forthcoming decades is the vertiginous rise of China. Where is this leading us?
4. Towards Utopia: The European Union
The world’s single most successful example of multilateral cooperation among nations previously often at conflict is the EU. How did it come about and where is it going?
5. The World’s Badlands: The Middle East
The Middle East is the focus of many of the world’s conflicts and challenges; from Islamic Fundamentalism through sectarian hatred to oil wars and nuclear proliferation. What can be done?
6. The better angels of our nature; democracy and human rights
The rise of democracy and heightened attention to the protection of human rights have been central to the rules-based order. How successful have we been?
7. “What Rough Beast”: Nationalism Reborn
After the Cold War nation states were expected over time to merge themselves into a rules based international community. But a recent revival of hard edged Nationalism increasingly complicates international cooperation. Where is this leading?
8. Catastrophe (so far) avoided; the Bomb
No nuclear weapon has been used in anger since 1945. An impressive record, but given proliferation pressures and new international tensions is it sustainable?
9. Climate change; the Planet united?
The biggest challenge facing mankind, demanding a united global response, is human induced climate change. How are we doing in dealing with it?
10. The end of the American Empire?
Since the end of the Cold War, the US has exercised global power on a scale unmatched since, probably, the days of Rome. And the rules-based order has largely depended on that power. As alternative powers, notably China, arise and the US itself changes what are the prospects for global order going forward?
Learning outcomes
You are expected to gain from this series of classroom sessions a greater understanding of the subject and of the core issues and arguments central to the course.
• to understand the big forces driving the evolution of world politics over the next few years
• to place international political developments in context and judge the likely implications for students’ own nations and communities
• to bring an informed understanding of the state of the world to their own public and
private involvements
Required reading
There are no required readings for this course. However, the main way to derive the most benefit from this course is to be as up to date as possible with international events and intelligent commentary on them. The sources on which I most rely are the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Economist, the Carnegie and Project Syndicate websites and (first class if you can lay your hands on it) Foreign Affairs magazine. You will of course have your own preferences.
